The Economy's Booming… Just Not For Everyone
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Summary
Despite record highs in the stock market and home prices, consumer sentiment about the economy is at its lowest point. This disconnect arises because the benefits of economic growth, particularly from asset appreciation, are concentrated among the wealthiest households, while the majority struggle with rising costs and debt.
Key points- The stock market and home prices have reached record highs, yet consumer sentiment is at an all-time low, indicating a significant disconnect.
- While average retirement account balances are at a record high, a record number of people are cashing them out early due to financial hardship.
- The wealthiest 1% of households own over half of all stocks, and the top 10% own 87%, leaving the bottom 90% with only 13%.
- Average hourly earnings have increased, but inflation has outpaced these gains, leading to a decrease in real purchasing power.
- Americans are increasingly relying on debt, such as credit cards and buy now, pay later services, to cover day-to-day expenses and essential needs.
- Personal savings rates have dropped to near record lows, with the bottom half of the country experiencing negative savings, meaning they spend more than they earn.
Chapters
Notable quotes (4)
“But at the same time, consumer sentiment toward the economy has fallen to its lowest level ever recorded.”
“Both of these economies are real.”
“And you have to start with the money coming in.”
“"We are seeing a disturbing shift from discretionary debt to survival debt."”
0:00The stock market just hit its 23rd record high this year. Home prices are higher than ever before and net worth in America has never been larger. By the numbers, this is one of the richest moments in the history of the country. But at the same time, consumer sentiment toward the economy has fallen to its lowest level ever recorded. It's lower than the early '80s recession, lower than the 2008 global financial crisis, and lower than during the pandemic lockdowns. So, there's a clear disconnect between what the data says about the economy and what people say they're experiencing in their day-to-day lives. And you can see it up close by
0:33looking at the most boring account in America. Because the average 401k in America just hit a record high, over 160,000. And in the same year retirement account balances hit a record high, a record number of people were also cashing them out early, willing to pay the penalty just to get access to the money. About 6% of savers rated their retirement, which is roughly triple the rate before the pandemic. Of those hardship withdrawals, 36% of them were to avoid foreclosure or eviction, 31% were due to medical expenses, and 13% were to cover tuition-related expenses. So, while on paper we're all living in the same economy, the reality for millions of
1:10Americans is the economy feels like completely different worlds. Which raises the question, how is this even possible? How can the data show a booming economy while the average person feels the exact opposite? Well, here's what almost nobody will say out loud. Both of these economies are real. The problem is that the American economy looks very different depending on where you stand. Because what we talked about earlier is rising asset prices, and it doesn't lift the country evenly. It's not weather. The trillions of dollars that get created when the market climbs doesn't fall on everyone like rain. It lands in specific accounts belonging to specific people. And if you don't own
1:46those accounts, the record highs aren't really happening to you. They're just a headline you scroll past on the way to your 9-to-5 job. So, the real question was never whether the economy is booming. It is. The real question is who benefits from it. When the market prints another record, whose account does that money actually flow into? And to answer that question, you just have to follow the paper trail. So, that's exactly what I did. There are about 134 million households in America. According to the Federal Reserve's own data, the richest 1% of them, around 1.3 million households, own more than half of all the stocks in the country. And if you
2:23zoom out to the top 10% of wealthiest households in America, which is about 13 million households, they own roughly 87% of all the stocks, which means the bottom 90% of the country, around 120 million households, own just 13% of the stock market between them. And the further down you go, the worse it gets. The teachers, the nurses, the bus drivers, the people who run the day-to-day of this country, the bottom half of Americans, those 67 million households own just 1% of the stock market. Not 1% each, 1% total, split between all 67 million households. The usual response to this is that almost everyone owns some stocks now. And
3:03technically, there's some truth to that, because it's estimated about 58% of Americans own some stock, usually inside a 401k. But owning some stocks and owning enough to matter are two very different things. Because for the bottom half of the country, the median stock holdings are about $13,000. But for the top 10%, well, that number is around $600,000.
3:25That's a 48-fold difference. And when you put actual dollar figures to that gap, the scale becomes impossible to ignore. In 2025, the stock market returned about 16%. For the bottom half of the country, that's a paper gain of about $2,000. But for the top 10%, that same 16% return in the market handed them over about $96,000. And this is just 1 year we're looking at. Now, consider that the market has has over 120% since 2020. So, while participation in the market got democratized, the dollars never did. The richest households who own almost all the stocks benefit from almost all the gains, while the bottom half of
4:03Americans fight for the scraps. But, let's forget about the charts for a second and look at the ground level, because the story you keep getting told is simple. The consumer is strong, spending is holding up, the economy is fine. And on the surface, it could appear that way. But, the truth about the average American consumer isn't in the headline. It's in their wallets, and you have to start with the money coming in. Last month, average hourly earnings were up about 3.6% from a year earlier, which sounds like a raise, except over that same stretch, inflation was up 3.8%, which means the raise got eaten by
4:36inflation before it ever landed. So, before the average American spends a single dollar, they're already losing ground. And this is being felt everywhere. Gallup held a survey where they asked Americans to name the single biggest financial problem facing their family. The top answer wasn't low wages, and it wasn't unemployment. It was the cost of living. High cost of living and inflation was named by 31% of Americans as the single most important financial problem facing their family today, which is near the highest level seen in the more than 20 years Gallup has run this survey. And once you remember that prices are up over 28% since the start
5:10of 2020, it isn't hard to see why 55% of Americans say their financial situation is getting worse. So, add this all up and it leads to one question. If the average Americans finances look this grim, how is consumer spending still going up? Where's the money coming from? And there's an answer. It's coming from the future, from debt. The first place is credit cards. Americans are now carrying about 1.25 trillion dollars of credit card debt, and the average interest rate on these credit cards is now sitting around 23%. And this isn't the rich chasing credit card points or airport lounge access. It's the opposite. Among people who carry credit
5:48card debt, Bankrate found that 33% site day-to-day expenses as the primary source of their debt. So, they're not financing a vacation. They're financing just to keep going. There's even a new name for this. It's called survival debt. But before we get into just how bad this survival debt problem actually is, a quick pause. Because let's talk about a problem we've all dealt with. It doesn't matter what you do for a living, consultant student analyst teacher or just the unlucky person who got tasked with making the presentation at work. At some point, we've all been the slide monkey. You start with a simple goal, make a presentation. 3 hours
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7:35survival debt. Because what started as just a slight concern is quickly becoming a full-blown crisis for millions of Americans. Mike Croxon, who runs the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, which is the largest non-profit credit counseling network in the country, summed it up best. He said, "We are seeing a disturbing shift from discretionary debt to survival debt." And the scary part about this kind of debt is for the people in it, there's usually no clear way out, which is why, according to Bankrate, 61% of people with credit card debt have now been carrying the debt for at least a year.
8:06This is an 8-point increase since 2024. And it doesn't just stop at credit cards. There's another new kind of debt that's spreading fast. You've probably seen the memes. People financing a Chipotle burrito by splitting it into four payments. This new kind of debt is a form of financing that lets people buy something today and pay for it in smaller installments over time. It's called buy now, pay later, and it used to just be for things like furniture and concert tickets. But now more than 90 million Americans use it. According to LendingTree, more than a quarter of buy now, pay later users say they've used these loans for groceries. And more than
8:40half say they couldn't make ends meet without using it. So, a significant chunk of the country is now financing their trip to the grocery store just to get through the week. And there's one last piece of the puzzle that shows just how scary things have gotten. It's the thing that's supposed to catch a family when something breaks, savings. The personal savings rate has dropped to about 2.6% near the lowest level on record and down from 5.5% a year ago.
9:05And it gets much worse. Economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis ran the numbers on savings across the income scale, and they found that for the bottom half of the country, more than 65 million households, the savings rate is actually negative, which means the bottom half of America is spending more than they bring in after taxes and running a loss every single month. So, it's not just that they're missing a safety net, it's that they're sinking deeper and deeper every month. That's the divide. The richer pulling away, while everyone else is borrowing to keep their heads above water. It's the same
9:38country, but completely different Americas. And for years economists had a name for this, the K-shaped economy. Winners on the top arm, losers on the bottom one, and the gap between them stretching wider. It's the phrase the rich get richer and the poor get poorer drawn as a letter. But that's not the true shape of the US economy anymore.
9:57The more honest shape of the American economy right now is an E. Here's what it would look like. Picture a normal letter E, three horizontal bars same length, stacked evenly. Now take the top bar and stretch it way out, far past the other two. Leave the bottom bar low, down near the floor, and take that middle bar and tilt it so it slopes downward. That's the United States economy. It's three different classes living three different lives. The top bar is the richest 10% the ownership class. Their wealth lives in stocks and real estate, and both have been on a tear. Home prices are up around 55%
10:31since 2020. The market is up over 120%. So this group has watched their net worth explode in recent years. They pulled away from everyone else because they own the assets that are being inflated. Then there's the bottom bar, down on the floor. It's the bottom half of the country, the 67 million households that own about 1% of the stock market. This is everything we just covered, the negative savings rate, the survival debt, the groceries split into four payments. They don't own the assets going up. They're just trying to stay afloat. And finally, the middle bar, everyone else in between, the households whose raises got eaten by inflation. The
11:07bar is tilted downward because something quiet is happening to this group. They're slipping down. Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, pointed to a clear shift taking place right now. She said, "We've seen in our data a pronounced shift to spending at warehouse and discount stores like Costco, Walmart, and Aldi, migrating away from the Whole Foods type of experiences." This is the class of Americans with a thin layer of breathing room left, and they can feel it getting thinner by the day. And before we wrap this video up, I'm curious where you stand. I want to hear how you feel about the economy. Drop a comment and let me
11:41know where you land on things. Because here's what I see. The top 10% of households are pulling away with a collective 68% of the total net worth in the country and a little over half of all the income. The middle 40% hold around 29% of the net worth and earn about a third of the income. And then the bottom half of Americans are left with about 2 and 1/2% of the net worth and roughly 10% of the income. It's the leftover split between 67 million households. And when you zoom out, the gap between these groups isn't holding steady. It's widening. That gap is exactly why the news and your bank
12:15account never seem to line up. Because add up all the wealth in the country, all the gains in the market, and all the other lines going up into the right, and you'll see a booming economy. But what those charts can't tell you is who is actually holding any of it. That's how you get a stock market at record highs, while the way people feel about the economy sits at record lows. Because it's the same country, but completely different Americas.
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