Patrick Karim: Gold is Bottoming & Setting Up Its Next Big Move
Summary
This video emphasizes the importance of focusing on price charts rather than news headlines for trading decisions. The guest argues that charts objectively reveal market trends, and understanding moving averages, particularly the 12-month and 36-month, is crucial for identifying uptrends, potential reversals, and breakout opportunities across various assets like stocks, gold, silver, copper, oil, and bonds.
Key points- Market news and geopolitical events are considered 'noise' that can distract traders from objective chart analysis.
- The 12-month and 36-month moving averages are key indicators for determining uptrends and potential reversals on different time frames.
- Breakouts are confirmed only after price closes above a resistance level, and not all breakouts are tradable due to risk-reward ratios.
- Gold and silver are currently in a bounce phase, not yet confirming a major breakout, and require building a base before significant upward moves.
- Copper has performed better than gold and silver, showing a consistent uptrend with less speculative excess.
- Oil is consolidating below a critical monthly breakout line, with significant upside potential only after a confirmed break above it.
Chapters
Notable quotes (4)
“No, I just that stuff is just filled with flying minds and uh you know, you know how it is that people could spin stories e either which way whether the price goes up or down like haven't you ever noticed like sometimes there's a story the price goes up it's a story and then the price goes down it's the same story they just you know they just do semantics and just play around with the words so tha”
“Forget the news. Let's just look at the charts and just accept that the aggregate of market participants, all of them, they're the ones carving out the private charts and we shouldn't try to think we're smarter than them. Let's just write the trend that they're carving out.”
“You'll never see a great setup when the price rockets upwards. The setup is before the price rockets upward.”
“That guys, that stuff is toxic, toxic, toxic stuff that traders should not listen to at all. What you need to listen to is what's happening to the price chart.”
0:00Gold just surged more than 3% to roughly $4,200 an ounce. Silver has moved above $62 an ounce, while the 10-year Treasury yield has fell to a oneweek low. This interview is being recorded on Wednesday, August 6th, and markets have reacted to weaker employment data as well as possible progress in the US Iran negotiations. Yet, our next guest argues that this is all noise and we should only look at the charts. He also argues that this move is still a bounce and has not yet confirmed the breakout that many investors in the metals want it to be.
0:33That distinction could determine whether buyers are entering early or are they chasing another false breakout. So what will finally confirm the next major metals move? Up next, our guest Patrick Kum of Northstar Bad Charts will share his thoughts on that question and on the charts. [music] >> Hello everyone. Welcome to the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. How you all [music] doing today?
1:03>> Hello everyone. Welcome to VRIC Media, your most trusted voice in Metals and Mining. I'm your host, Daryl Thomas, and today we're meeting with Patrick Kum of Northstar Bad Charts. How you doing today Patrick? >> Hey, Daryl. Doing great. >> That's good. That's good. You got you got to give us some insight. How are the trades going right now? the market's going crazy. It's it's funny how the indices are hitting all-time highs. They are still um blowing through some of these all-time highs and uh we still have a lot of uncertainty around a straighter moose and all of that. And so, how are you kind of looking at the
1:38markets right now? >> Yes. Well, step number one, I don't I don't really care about uh the strait of Hermoose or any taco or whatever is Alamod these days. No, I just that stuff is just filled with flying minds and uh you know, you know how it is that people could spin stories e either which way whether the price goes up or down like haven't you ever noticed like sometimes there's a story the price goes up it's a story and then the price goes down it's the same story they just you know they just do semantics and just play around with the words so that I don't care
2:14about but after that once you remove all that noise and the fear all that stuff you could just look at the chart and the chart will will just tell you. Are the indices in uptrends above inclining 12-month moving averages? Yes, there go. You're you're in an uptrend, right? If you want to start spotting a possible bare market in the US equities, well, all you have to do is probably zoom in on the daily chart. If the daily chart is not falling apart, then there's no worries. You know, if then if the daily chart is falling apart, then you could look at the weekly, monthly, could, you
2:42know, you could zoom out on the time frames and spot the the rollover. So that's how I manage to stay sane with all that that craziness there on social media and even on YouTube and all the headline news, right? Just stay away from that. And of course, now your viewers are going to get to see some charts and we'll be able to remove strip all the way the noise and just tell them objectively what is actually happening to the price charts. And that's what you got to listen to, Darl. Because what if the chart's going up and breaking out and you don't have a the a
3:19bullish narrative in your head why it's going up? All you hear in the news, it can go up, it can go up, it can go up, but the price is going up. What are you going to do? And the same thing on the downside. The price is going down and then they they say, well, the straight of Hermouth is closed. Uh oil has to go up, you know, but and the price of oil is going down. So, oh, like forget the news. Let's just look at the charts and just accept that the aggregate of market participants, all of them, they're the ones carving out the private charts and
3:47we shouldn't try to think we're smarter than them. Let's just write the trend that they're carving out. >> Okay. So, what indicators would you be looking at? So, we know that sometimes there's uh like recently uh there was a hot war again between us and Iran and then Trump came out and said um hey there there's there's talks about a deal and then the market just reverses and such. Are you looking at volumes? Are you what are you looking at to kind of like on the charts to be able to see that that's that's happening?
4:22>> Let's do it. So, start on the monthly chart here. I have the SPX, guys, monthly chart. I I I like I I like having two moving averages on my chart. The blue one is the Let me zoom in. Oops. The blue one is a 12-month moving average. And as long as we're we're above that, then it's uh shortterm.
4:43Well, short-term as defined by that moving average, we're an uptrend. So, whatever. Sometimes you you explode upwards and you go sideways, you let it connect, and then it keeps going up. So there's no worries on the monthly time frame until you start closing below it. Once you start closing below it like you had here, then you're at risk. Will it bounce or then you're at risk of going down maybe to the 36-month moving average. That's my longer time frame. So for shorter term investors, you look at a 12-month moving average. For much longer term investors, you're going to allow, let's say we do plummet, you're
5:16allow more wiggle room to go sideways or down for the price chart. You just allow it because you're a longer term price chart. And often, Darl, that's when we get the debates and the confusion when we are not aligning time frames when we talk. And people say, "Well, Patrick, are you short-term? Uh, are you bearish? Let's say silver." And I say, well, I'm long-term bullish, but I'm short-term bearish in the sense that the smaller time frames are starting to fall apart.
5:45But for the S&P, look at that. Even here since the bottom in 2009, 200, yeah, 9 all the way up. Look at that beautiful up run above the 12-month moving average. If you get some weakness here in the 2000s, uh, 2016, that's when gold and silver had a good rally in the miners. We went below the 12 period moving average the 12 month. Then we retaged the the 36 month and then off we went again sideways then off we went again and now we are off we went again and then sideways off we went again. So there's no need here to front run anything. It looks actually like it
6:23could be breaking out. I could zoom in on the weekly chart and look at that. My goodness. There's there's another breakout here. That's crazy. So no matter what the news is, no matter what you think about the economy, about the business cycle, the the ma the truth of the matter is this this looks like it wants to go up higher. So there's aggregate of fundamentals, right? Money supply acceleration, that's the the the bullish the bullish side, but then after that you could spin while unemployment rates going up. So that's the negative side you know consumers you know they have no more money etc. But at the end of the day
7:06this is the chart and the chart the market participants are h that's a weekly. So if we close the week here what are we today Thursday and that's a breakout and the measured move the S&P is going to 8300 that's crazy but that's what it the market seems to want to tell us and you know there's no there's no downtrend at all here. [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah. And uh down below is that the RSI down there?
7:32>> No, this is yes for indicators you ask me. I've dabbled with practically like all indicators, but this is really my favorite because it's the distance of the price from the 36month moving average or the 36 period moving average. And that's my red line. So, it's very close. It's just how far am I from a moving average? It's not some crazy mathematics where I'm um getting further and further away from the price chart. It's just how much distance is there from that red line all the way to the price. And the more you're stretched, then the less the the less it's a lower risk opportunity. The
8:16best lower risk opportunities is when this thing contracts and then breaks out. See, it went sideways letting that moving average catch up and then after that it broke out. It didn't do a full reset. The best often when I like is when it does a full reset and then it's quelled and tight close to that 36 month 36 period moving average then it shoots up. So full resets are are better. But right now it looks like we we are expanding away from the 36month moving average. We entered a correction went sideways and now it looks like we're trying to expand once again. So that's my bottom indicator.
8:52You know, it could stretch even more. It's not like the RSI where it's it's an oscillator where, you know, it's going to it's going to be rangebound between zero and 100. That thing, you know, I could distance myself from the moving average as much as the price wants to. But you do see some historical, you know, it does kind of naturally range when you're too stretched, when there's profit taking, etc. So then the momentum slows down, etc. So it kind of tells you where you are, but right now it looks like there's some room to go up. So we're going to stretch once again. We're going to be in an expansion
9:29phase on the weekly chart away from that 36 week moving average. >> So So in your perspective as a trader, uh where would you what would you be looking at to say, okay, this is a buy? like would would you have saw this breakout coming um based on any um any trend lines or anything like that? >> You you never frontr run possible breakout. So you what you have is maybe here on the daily chart even cleaner because you need three reactions and I'll put on the line chart here. So what happens is let's say before this when did this happen? This happened started uh moving up early this week.
10:111 2 3. Yeah. What you would see is a possible bullish pattern morphing into existence. You you don't know yet that it's going to break out. It actually here it did a false breakdown. Then it went all the way through up. So once you get a possible pattern, you don't frontun it. You need to wait for the close. And once you got the close above the breakout line, then that's when you know, okay, that's the breakout. That's the move.
10:39Then I could do some measured move targets. You know, here's the less greedy one, the base of the pattern. And then if it continues even higher, it will be the pull flag leading into it. Not quite sure where that is, but you know that's after that's going to be another target. So the price might go here a little sideways and then we double it up and then we're going to go to 8,300. So you don't you see the job of a chart analyst is to see the setups morphing into existence.
11:10You'll never see a great setup when the price rockets upwards. The setup is before the price rockets upward. So price rockets upward. Then the setup is this this oscillation here, you know, above and below the the intertwining moving averages. And then once you get the breakout above the key level that has been identified then then you know you have an opportunity you have you have a the market's selling you but sometimes also Darl the price move the price moves up so fast that the the implied measure move you're almost halfway to it. So, whatever my arrows are, the measure moves at this target.
11:52Let's say I started here and then I had I had the breakout and then I went all the way here. I I could be all the way by the time I get my breakout candle confirmed, I could already be close to the target. So, you know, that's the nature of the beast. You can't uh you you don't decide the breakout candle how big it's going to be. If you're lucky, you get a beautiful breakout candle like we had in gold back in June of 2019. Check this out.
12:20Let's go on the monthly chart here. You see, we had that beautiful breakout and that candle was not all the way up here. Like that candle was just, you know, very convincing above the breakout line and we knew that we had a that's a non- greedy move. you know, we buy here and then you had all that move here baked in. That's your target. So, you got, you know, the best of both worlds. Beautiful confirmed breakout with a candle not too far away. So, that's, you know, you don't have to play the S&P. You could get a breakout, Darl, on the S&P and it could be unplayable.
12:59Not all breakouts are mathemat mathematically playable. Yes, you got a breakout. It's telling you the price is going up higher, but as a trade, you might not even be able to play it because you're already too close to your target that it's not worth the the risk versus the reward. It will just not be worth it for you to play it. So, >> Mhm. There's that also to consider. Not all chart breakouts are are playable.
13:25Let's look at gold today. Uh so, we're uh recording on Wednesday. I mean, there's there's there's a a little bit of a pop in gold, but you know, I mean, we we've seen we've seen gold rallied and then then retrace back to 4,000. So, I I don't know if this this is a false breakout or what. [clears throat] >> Well, this look on the monthly chart, there's no breakout because my question I'm going to ask you and your viewers is where where's where's the where's the base where's the ba the the base breakout? Where's the formation? There's nothing here. Let's say here you see the
13:59price went down back in 2020 and then it went back up. But that there there's no breakout here. The breakout was after it did that for a couple of years. Then you get the meaningful breakout. What do we have here? What we have right now is a bounce, a solid solid bounce. Here at the bottom is a distance from that 36-month moving average. It's still resetting. The odds are of this just rocketing upwards are very low. The odds are actually that yes, this is a beautiful bounce and we're likely to carve out. Let me put my let me put my path here. We're probably going to go, let's see how high we go.
14:38We could go, I don't know, all the way up to 5200. Maybe it's going to stop a little bit. Eventually, it's going to do this. And this is a bullish case scenario for me. You know, I don't know how high these peaks are going to be, but this the next breakout, guys. So, if you want to use the word breakout on the monthly chart, the you need some type of pattern like this. You need three reactions. You need a breakout line. That's that's a breakout right now. There's no there there's nothing. There's absolutely nothing right now. Right now, what you have is a bounce, which is going to be
15:13let's see how high it goes. And then it's going to carve out this next pattern here. You guys got to remember even not all bullish looking patterns. Right now we don't even have a bullish pattern but the the moving averages are still going up you know. So the bias is that this eventually will resolve sideways and then up. But you got to remember that here back in 2011 you had a crazy rally up and it it looked kind of bullish here right?
15:42Some people could have said, "Oh, look early breakout line." But guess what? the bottom fell through and then it went down. So you you can't never be a hero. Once you start spotting that you're in a correction and here when the distance from moving average starts falling apart you know you're in a correction as a market participant you're patient that's when you're patient and you wait and you wait. Yes it's crazy move. How how much of a percentage move is this going to be if it goes all the way back up there? It's going to be, you know, yeah, the 20% move here, 25% move for gold possible right now in the
16:19next couple of months. But we we just don't know where this going to stop. And if even if you you know, yes, maybe we could go on the let's go on the daily chart cuz that's the only play I would see right now. Even on remove drawings on the daily chart, you might be able to, you know, play that.
16:40Goodness, there's so many Wows. Where's my next W? It's going to be a while here. It's going to be a wall down here. You know, it's still super early. So, yes, you could probably this that's a breakout, but a breakout of this this uh length. So, it's very short. You can't expect it to do that. There's not enough, you know, it's going to probably there's going to be a lot of sellers here at that wild 4200. Then it's going to bounce. How low is it going to bounce? You know, then maybe a flag, you know, that's how patterns it would have to do. These two pull
17:15flags one after the other to be able to start, you know, carving out maybe a bigger pattern which where that's going to be the one that's going to launch us to, you know, the crazy up target. So right now you got to see this as building blocks putting the little Lego pieces in. But there's going to be, you know, this move could probably bring us to 4,400. Then there's going to be a wall. See what happens here. Congestion area. If it busts through, then after that the next target is going to be 4,800, etc. That's how you methodically break down the chart from a higher time frame all the
17:49way to a more actionable scalper trader, swing trader type of setup, right? But these are all expecting a move of that of this arrow to materialize right now from here is illogical. It's not logical right now because you got to expect it's that first road map I drew you there. Mhm. Right. You got to expect rally and then a huge move down.
18:19Then then we decide if we go up or down. So, here's your time frame and then but this this is the play on the daily chart all the way up here. I'm not a super fan of it because you haven't you know you could have a rug pull at any moment. We just don't know where the resistance line is going to kick in. So, you got to be really really nimble if you want to day trade this.
18:43>> Yeah. Okay. So, um, the 36month moving average, how far is gold currently from that? It's right here. So, we're still 33% above from it. So, a correction is price and or time. So, as if gold decides to do a rally here, well, the moving average is going to go up. And if gold can't really outpace it, then it's going to go up. And it could still do this while the price of gold's going up. and then it's going to go sideways. So that moving average once it catches up then you have look look how look at these setups. Look look how close we were off
19:22to that 36-month moving average when we explode upwards right you went down sideways and up. Now we're still going down. Vshaping is not the uh the recipe here. Gold does not vshape after losing momentum. you know, it goes sideways, sideways, down, sideways, and then up, right? Down, sideways, sideways, then up. We're still going down. So, this is not the the operating uh standard operating procedure for gold. Once it breaks the momentum, it, you know, it goes sideways. So, you just I know it's very, you know, people love choosing bottoms. People love with hindsight saying, "Look, you could have bought at that exact bottom and look,
20:08you could have made that much profits, but guys, it's not reality. We we're right now on your channel, we're breaking it down in real time." So, you can't you have to acknowledge this is a possible bottom. But even if it is the the bottom, then after that, whatever you if even if you bought here, then let's say it does rush all the way up here, make 25%. But then it goes sideways for a a multiple of time, right? all that usually all that time it takes uh this is another thing I'll show you this so let's say I go up here often the time it takes to reach to
20:46define your next breakout line the distance between these peaks here is often replicated before you break out so even if you buy here the price goes up here but then you're holding month after month after month you're diluting those gains because the the true play is all the way up here. So yes, you took a chance, you got that those gains in, but then after that it's highly likely that this just goes sideways for 1 2 3 4 5 6 another 6 months and then whatever gains you had here that 25% well it's not it's not 25% you did in one month or two months it's 25% you did over 2 3 months
21:21then another 8 months you know for so that's dilutes a lot of those gains and I call that returns over time and people don't talk about this enough they just go hindsight choose the bottom choose the peak at the end of the bull run, but they don't divide by the months. How long did you have to hold that thing?
21:38And time is a precious asset we all have as humans. It's finite, you know, while other assets might be blowing off. So, you got all that stuff got to consider, guys. You can't just live. Look at that. Look, look, look at the time it took here, right? Rally. Look before it broke out. Takes time guys. Even on these the these uh once we lost that um look at that here peaked then went sideways for how many months? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 a year here. GFC. Look how how long it went sideways, right? So, it's not about and the bottoms. Well,
22:13and look this. I'm showing you a bullish pattern, but it could be this. Let's let's be honest. It could go up here and then it could even go down more here. You could have this uh inverse head and shoulders, right? Who's to say you we're not going to get a lower low after this crazy rally up, right? Let's say the GFC type of event is right around the corner for you know and then we come and retag that rising.
22:42So that's another scenario, right? We don't >> That's why you never frontr run a possible corrective pattern ending because you don't know how it's going to look like. This is still bullish. It's a expanding wedge, whatever. It could be that. It could be the other scenario where it's more it's like this. It's coiled and tight, you know, a ascending triangle. Which one is it going to be, Darl? Do you know? Do you have I don't know. It could be either of those. All you know is you'll know what type of pattern it is after it completes and after it breaks out. Then you could put that one in the record books and say
23:16we broke out out of a ascending triangle. We broke out of a uh you know inverse head and shoulders. We broke out out of a expanding bullish wedge after the fact because I've seen so many patterns look bullish. Let's say it's a whatever a bullish wedge breaking out but it fails to break out and then that pattern instead of being a bullish wedge it becomes an expanding wedge you know etc etc. So >> don't for anything guys this is a good step this was to be expected a violent bounce for gold and silver at some point but then that's just stage step one step two is actually having a playable
23:56pattern and we don't have it yet. Okay. So, I use uh the 200 U moving average. Um you got any thoughts on that? >> Like the 12 or the 36? >> Yeah. So, this is a 12 uh month moving average. The 200 day moving average is uh should be very close to that. It's uh there's there's no issue there. Well, essentially what you're doing by putting a 200 day moving average, you're just taking a sneak peek at the higher time frame. So, let's say you're on the monthly chart. You're on the daily chart. So, you have daily price action, but then you put in a longer term moving
24:32average on it. Then you're just you're just like sneak peeking on what let's say the monthly chart is telling you, right? Because you're using a longerterm moving averages. So, you're kind of doing multi-time frame analysis on one chart pane. you have daily price chart action, but you're also considering longerterm resistance or support. So, it's it's a good it's a good way to do it.
24:58>> Okay. Okay. Got it. Uh let's look at silver. Last time you told us the silver trade was dead. >> Well, it's going to be the same thing as pretty much the same story as gold right now. So on the 4 hour chart, that's like really like for really short-term traders. You had a breakout uh back here a couple of days ago. Then it's running up.
25:27Then after that it will get stretched on the smaller time frames. And once it gets stretched on the small on the smaller time frames, it will beg for a reset etc. And then you will have another opportunity. So right now silver is approaching its next resistance level 62 building blocks. What happens now? Does it go down for the count or it does something more bullish and then it breaks out. So we'll just have to figure out wait until that happens. So the correction has not even started yet on the 4hour chart. So the monthly chart cannot keep going down until the day weekly chart starts going
26:02down. The weekly chart cannot start going down until daily chart starts going down and the daily chart etc. all the way to this 4hour candle chart. So, right now the distance from that 36 period moving average is not falling apart. We're still rising upwards, but now visibly we're at a resistance zone. So, we're going to probably expect here some type of congestion and then for those that miss that, we'll see.
26:27We'll see what happens here. Will it resolve upwards or is that all a fall like you know that whole thing will will f fall apart? But right now it's a beautiful starting building block for eventually bigger move cuz remember whatever builds up here on the 4hour chart eventually it will cascade on the 8 hour chart which it already has and then you'll start seeing it on the daily chart. But even the daily chart you'll there's so many hurdles along the way. There's going to be there's a huge wall here at 71. So, let's see how it builds up here. If we do get a breakout above a 63
27:05area, then we're probably going to go challenge, you know, we're going to go head up to 71, except that's like look how deep we are. Look, look, look, look how deep we are. My goodness. It's like I don't even know where to put that. I don't like these these steep lines. So stick with the horizontal ones. So baby building blocks. Eventually essentially it's a rehash of the gold story. The the charts are practically the same.
27:38>> Yeah. Okay. Okay. Then uh what's copper doing? >> Copper, you know what? It's it it looked a a lot better than than gold and silver did. Um it did not correct. It did not do a blowoff top like like gold and silver did. So, it did not need to correct as much. It's just trending upwards nicely.
28:04Look at that. That's the monthly chart, guys. Here is the distance from moving average trending upwards. And right now, there's no there's no issue right now. Is there a low risk entry? Probably not. Well, there isn't because you need a big base to have a low risk entry point. Explosion, not a low risk entry point anywhere here because then you're vulnerable for for sideways move. But once a sideways move is done, then you have another explosion. Oh goodness.
28:36So the next lower risk entry point will be eventually you'll get a a correction and that will be the next lowrisk entry point. But it's an objectively it's an uptrend and it's just uh trending upwards. It's like, you know, it's at targets. It's very close to reaching implied measure move targets, greedy ones, less greedy ones, a greater target maybe up here.
29:01So maybe it has enough juice to get all the way up to eight bucks. Going to have to wait and see before it starts its next correction. So copper did um perform better than gold and silver in the sense that it did not correct as much as they did. >> Mhm. [clears throat] Is it is it valid to say that there wasn't as much speculation in copper?
29:27>> Well, well, speculation you could defi define it by the distance from moving average. So, copper even now today, look how stretch it is. 38% away from its 36 month moving average. So, if you want to godge objectively what FOMO is or speculate like excessive speculation, you could see here back in 2004 did a crazy move up out of that base. It got stretched this much before it needed to correct. And then after that, it was able to go all the way up here. Even here, if I lower this, here's a 2021 peak. Look, we're still not there. But gold and silver, if I put gold and
30:02silver, look, look how much they were above their 20 21 peaks. You see, look, you see how stretched I was? That's if you want to define speculation by FOMO by how far you are able to distance yourself from a moving average then yes there's there was less speculation in copper than gold and silver. Okay. Okay. Got it. All right. What's what's happening with oil?
30:29Um many people were expecting higher oil prices. We we did get there and then um came down quite a bit. >> [snorts] >> Yes. Well, well, it's pretty clear there. There's there's one line now that's really important. It's this one. That is the monthly defined breakout line. One touch, two touch, three touch. Massive massive base. Look at that.
30:54Since 200 8. So, that's that's the play for me for oil. The true play for oil is a breakout above that line and that launches crazy crazy up targets. I don't know like how great you going to get but you know 300 bucks all that stuff it happens above that line. So until then we it's uh you know the bias is uh sideways or down until it does break out here.
31:23There was a chart I did on X here. Here that's the play. [snorts] So until we close above it there's a beautiful descending line here on the daily chart. So the magic number right now is about 9150. If um oil gets above that, then we're going to go challenge 115, 116, all those numbers. But right now, we're still grinding sideways below that descending line.
31:51It's right here. Look at that. So always be objective. Who cares what uh Trump says? Who cares about the Hermu Iran? That guys, that stuff is toxic, toxic, toxic stuff that traders should not listen to at all. What you need to listen to is what's happening to the price chart. So, the last rally oil did was actually to morph into existence or not even morph, confirm this breakout line. 1 2 3 four touches. Now, that's going to be crazy crazy important. Now, the more touches the better. So, once we finish the this down move here, you know, that's going to be the play.
32:28Keep your eyes on the prize. The play is up here somewhere. Right now, there's nothing to do. That's a sideways drift or down until this resolves. >> So, are are you currently positioned long oil or are y'all staying away from it? What's kind of your view on? >> Nothing to do here with oil right now on multiple time frames, right? On the daily chart, there there's no breakout on the I think a while back we played on the 4hour candle chart. We played this move upwards here, but then we got out as a trade where we're out. Right now the setup on the daily chart that's the
32:59setup and if I say there's a setup that's not confirmed that means there's nothing >> and on the monthly chart I showed you the setup is below is um the setup is in progress so there there's nothing to do here you cannot you know there unless I could zoom out if you tell me what's my position for 100 years of course I'm I'm bullish right because higher lows you know if I go on the quarterly chart well even on the quarterly chart there there's no breakout So yeah, no, there's nothing to do here.
33:31You're agnostic until >> till you get confirmation. >> Yeah. Yeah. Until you get Look at the quarterly chart. Look at that. Look how meaningful that line is on the quarterly chart. 1 2 3. That crazy rally we just had is actually just a test of that. Look at that level, man. That $100 level is so critical. That is insane. Insane resistance. But who says insane resistance says in an insane breakout line and even here on the on the yearly chart?
34:02That's crazy crazy stuff there. >> Yeah, >> that's that's pretty much it there. There's a something crazy is going to happen. I highly suspect this is going to break out to the upside. That's going to be a crazy move. Look at that. Coiled and tight to the very long-term moving averages. Look at that. Before you get crazy explosions, look, look what they have in common there.
34:32>> This This is an explosion. Like, if it confirms above, there's no FOMO. We're not stretched for moving averages. There's no speculation. There's nothing. It's just oil like you know oil's like almost destined there to go 200 300 there but >> wow >> not quite yet. >> Yeah. Yeah definitely. Uh so yields uh Federal Reserve kept rates the same. I'm sure we we shouldn't pay attention to that as traders, but uh it does it does have some impacts, right?
35:13>> Well, the Fed what they're doing they're they're tracking the the moving average of the the two-year yields or you could look at the the three months notes, you know, it's like I could overlay the um the Fed fund rate on this chart and it's going to look I'll do it there. Fed fund not done Fed fund protestant. There you go. And you'll see it tracks a two-year yields.
35:51Two year olds are actually starting to go up. But it yeah, you gota the market knows the Fed is a market participant but at the same time there's other market participants out there, right? So it's the aggregate of them that's really carving out these charts. But then when you look look at the 10 look at that this is a 10-year yield.
36:19Look at the 10ear yield. That's breaking out there. Look at that thing. 10ear yields on the weekly chart. What on the monthly chart? Yeah. Monthly chart breaking out. Oh goodness. Let me remove the Fed fund right here. That's annoying. Look at this. Bam. Look at that. Look at that breakout. So right now now we're hitting resistance, but we're above a So here you could expect a pullback, a correction, and then, you know, a bigger pattern. Here's a 30-year yield. And it's not just the US, right? It's all countries, right? It's globalized. You know, you can people, you know, we're in the States, people look at the Fed, the
37:02Fed. Yeah. But what about the Bank of Canada? What about the the German central bank? What about the Japanese? Even the Japanese while the their their rates are were often below all the other countries. Look what's happening now. Look how much they're they're they're catching up, right? They they curved it. They controlled it. But now them two, they're they're look this is the same percentage scales worldwide. See the range? It's not crazy, right? Like they're they're they're all close one to another. That stuff tracks. So we have a we're in a world macro situation here that we're not in the 1980s where we're peing yields world yield rates and going down.
37:47We've actually bottom world yields and sorry going up right. So you can listen to the Fed, but you should to by that measure you should be listening to all all Feds right across all central banks across all major countries. But just look at the chart instead. Save yourself some hassle. You remove that noise and just look at that chart and until that chart starts turning downwards. Then all that stuff there is all jaw-boing. Is that the word? When people just talk talk to try to just just look at the chart. It's objective, unbiased. And right now that stuff's still going up, right?
38:25Higher lows, higher highs. What do you want me to do there? I'm not I'm not forcing my will onto this chart. I'm listening to what the chart is uh telling me or doing actually. >> Mhm. So, do do you think uh bonds would be something that you'd be interested in in owning? >> Well, bonds uh to short like there's a like the bonds even if I go like this the bonds the bonds actually, you know, they they broke down. So, the yields are breaking out. The bonds are breaking down and uh yeah, look at that. It's like yes.
39:03>> Is that TLT? >> Yeah, that's TLT. So, you know, it look like Well, look, is it going to be a false breakdown with hindsight? Look, right now there's no evidence of a of a breakdown. We just have to go with the fact that right now maybe a pull back and then back down she goes. So, there's no Look at that. That's nasty. How does it look like on the bimonthly chart, quarterly chart here? Look at that. Even had a quarterly defined breakdown.
39:37Look at that. Nasty, nasty, nasty stuff. >> Have to go down for this to reverse. Is that correct? >> Yes, 100%. I think the the TLT I I think I did the study. I for CPIA. What? Oh, hold on. Check this out. TLT divided by CPI A. So TLT I forget how I I did it there. The bonds adjusted for inflation is the yield chart.
40:14Yeah, I forgot how I I came up with that there. But uh yeah, so the yields the yield going down essentially will be will will have will be the reciprocal adjusted for inflation of the bonds. I'd have to uh totally forgot. I found that little relationship recently. Uh there you go. Something like that. So you see here I have the uh the 20-year yields and then I have the bonds and uh the you see the inverse of the bonds adjusted for inflation is the are the yields >> but I think I have a better chart for that. Yeah. See how how well they correlate.
40:57>> So yes so yields uh yields up uh bonds down until uh the market tell us otherwise. >> Okay. All right. So, that's good to know. Good to know. Well, uh, Patrick, appreciate you coming on, giving us updates on your thoughts on the markets and the charts, what the charts are saying and everything. So, I mean, just to kind of recap. Uh, gold may be in a short-term breakout, but it's far away from its 36-month moving average and has to build a base. Uh, same thing with silver. uh copper has hasn't had the same um type of move that gold and uh silver has had and so there there was
41:41arguably less speculation in that and so uh copper potentially has some some more upside um to its wings and so um did I summarize that correct? >> You're the best, Daryl. Exactly, guys. And uh you know this is objective stuff. It's not me. You won't hear me spinning something about uh mining earnings per share and valuations. I don't care about none of that stuff because there's always an example back in the past where you'll see that something is super stretch earnings per share. Sometimes it's not. Sometimes it corresponds with the price. Sometimes it doesn't. The price catches up to it instead of it.
42:18You know what I mean? Mhm. >> It's like we just looked at price charts and that's what the market the aggregate of market participants are telling us. It's exactly how you summarized it. I couldn't have done it any better. >> Yeah. Well, appreciate you uh Pat. So, where can the audience go and get access to the trades that you all are loading up and everything? I know know you all put your trades out there. It isn't financial advice, but um you all are um pointing the audience to point your subscribers to what you all are up to.
42:51>> All the good stuff, guys. It's uh well on social media bad charts one, but uh for all the trades, all the actionable stuff, in-depth, it's all on our website northstarbatcharts.com. That's where you get all the good stuff. >> All right, sounds good. Well, appreciate you, Pat, for your time. And um you all hit the subscribe button if you haven't subscribed yet. Love to have your support. Also click the link in the description to the commodity university uh so that you can learn more about how commodities work in our world. And so thank you all for watching and Pat until next time. Take care, sir.
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